Abortion rights advocates are already well-established in their campaigns to place the topic on ballots in at least nine states in 2024, hoping to continue their winning trend. To allow voters in these states to choose from proposals similar to this, groups have started gathering signatures.
Voters in Ohio, a state that leans Republican, entrenched abortion rights in the state constitution, marking the movement’s most recent win.
All of this is a part of the push to directly give voters control over abortion rights, which gained momentum when the Supreme Court reversed Roe v. Wade in its June 2022 Dobbs ruling.
Source : NBC NEWS
The CEO of Planned Parenthood’s political arm, which is actively engaged in state initiatives to increase abortion rights, Alexis McGill Johnson, said, “We’ve already seen the power of direct democracy in seven states where campaigns to protect or restore abortion rights won resoundingly.” “Voters are eager to combat the wave of anti-abortion policies pushed by politicians across the nation.”
But for many, the future is significantly less assured than it was for earlier attempts. Obstacles to such attempts include less receptive public opinion in certain deep-red states where they are being implemented, and more technical ones in others where they require challenging signature and passing criteria.
Nevertheless, supporters in other areas claim they see a direct path to greater success.
There is a long road ahead in South Dakota, Nebraska, and Missouri.
A group of proponents of abortion rights in Nebraska known as Protect Our Rights organised a campaign last week to have a ballot initiative approved in November of next year that would guarantee the right to an abortion up to foetal viability, or around the 24th week of pregnancy, protected by the state constitution. Beyond that point, the idea allows for exclusions based on a woman’s life and health.
In Nebraska, abortion is now prohibited after about the 12th week of pregnancy, with the exception of cases involving rape, incest, and mother-saving procedures.
According to Ashlei Spivey, a member of the executive committee of Protect Our Rights, the petitions will start to circulate the next week.
By early July, the campaign has to get the signatures of around 123,000 registered voters in order to effectively get the proposal on the ballot. However, Nebraska requires that the bundle contain at least 5% of registered voters in 38 of the 93 counties in the state, which makes the effort more challenging.
Only two of the 93 counties in the firmly conservative state supported President Joe Biden in 2020, and a disproportionate amount of Democratic voters dwell in the few counties around Omaha and Lincoln.
Obtaining the necessary quantity of signatures in over thirty counties would be difficult, according to Spivey, but it would be one of the group’s “most important steps” in the process.
However, she went on, “the issue of abortion care is really about an individual’s right to health care; it’s not political, it’s not about red or blue.”
To overcome similar obstacles, officials have been spearheading a push in neighbouring South Dakota to post a ballot item there in 2024.
A group known as Dakotans for Health is attempting to place a proposed constitutional amendment that would legalise abortion in the first trimester of pregnancy in all circumstances on the ballot for voting next autumn. The plan would keep second-trimester abortions illegal unless a woman’s life or health was in danger. The idea would only permit exceptions in the third trimester if the woman’s life was in danger.
Should the amendment be approved, it would essentially reverse the state’s almost complete prohibition on abortion, which was reinstated after the Roe decision. The legislation forbids all abortions unless it is absolutely essential to preserve the mother’s life, and proponents of abortion claim that it is one of the strictest in the country.
Dakotans for Health must first gather 35,000 signatures from registered voters by May 7 in order to put the proposal.
Co-founder Adam Weiland of the group said that they have already gathered over 50,000 signatures and expect strong opposition from opponents both nationally and in the state.
However, there are still significant challenges. Abortion opponents have been actively contesting the group’s actions in court for more than a year, more so than in many other states where comparable initiatives are being carried out. They have most recently started a strong “decline to sign” campaign.
But if the proposal makes it to the ballot in November, Weiland predicted that the state’s stringent prohibition would encourage voter turnout in addition to signer participation.
The severity of our restriction here is one significant distinction that could be helpful, he added. “The nation’s strictest abortion prohibition is in place here.”
Nonetheless, little state polling indicates that South Dakotans are far less supportive of abortion rights than Americans as a whole.
According to two surveys conducted in 2022, the state’s nearly complete ban on abortion was supported by a majority of voters, while respondents to another survey were nearly evenly divided on the issue of the right to an abortion during the first trimester of pregnancy (46% said they supported it and 43% said they opposed it).
The situation for proponents of abortion rights is similar in Missouri, where organisations have put out 11 separate amendments that would increase the state’s legalisation of the procedure, but they haven’t yet acted on any of them. Following the Dobbs ruling, Missouri’s almost complete abortion prohibition—which permits treatment only in cases of “medical emergency” involving a woman’s life—went back into force.
Although there is a Republican-led effort in the state that may result in an amendment that imposes less severe restrictions on abortion than what the current state law mandates, the most well-known effort to date aims to put to voters a constitutional amendment that would legalise abortion up until the point of foetal viability.
Republicans are working to get amendments restricting abortion rights on the ballot in at least two states: Pennsylvania and Iowa.
Legislators, not the public, are in charge of the amendment recommendation procedure in both states. An amendment stating that there is no constitutional right to an abortion has been advanced by Iowa’s GOP-controlled Legislature; however, the bill must be approved again in the next session in order to be placed on the ballot in November. The situation is the same in Pennsylvania, but since Democrats only have a slim majority in the state House, the likelihood of such a bill passing is much lower.
There are many of questions in Florida. abortion
While obstacles remain, proponents of a Florida state constitution amendment that would outlaw limitations on abortion before foetal viability remain very optimistic.
The initiative’s driving force, Floridians Protecting Freedom, needs the legitimate signatures of over 900,000 state-registered voters by February 1st in order to proceed with having the proposal placed on the ballot in November 2024.
The organisation still has to gather about half of the necessary number in only 10 weeks, since it has authenticated approximately 492,000 signatures so far.
Republicans and proponents of abortion in the state have also opposed the initiative at every stage.
The phrasing of the plan and the group’s attempts to gather signatures are being opposed by conservative lawyers. Regardless of the results of the signature gathering, Republican Attorney General Ashley Moody has sent a brief to the state Supreme Court pleading with it to prevent the issue from being put on the ballot.
Additionally, proponents of abortion rights in Florida have voiced worries that national Democratic organisations have largely disregarded the state’s abortion rights issue, as NBC News reported last month.
The route to success is steep, despite the supporters’ optimistic projections. Lauren Brenzel, the campaign director for Floridians Protecting Freedom, said her organisation “has the time, resources, and momentum to win.”
In contrast to many other states, the initiative would need to be approved by 60% of voters in November rather than just a simple majority.
Florida now allows abortions up to 15 weeks; however, the state Supreme Court will decide whether to uphold this legislation in the future. In actuality, however, the ruling would mean that the earlier this year passed but yet unenacted six-week abortion ban—which has exceptions for rape, incest, and mother’s life—would be upheld by the court and permitted to continue in effect.
Should the amendment be approved in November, both statutes would be essentially repealed.
Colorado, Nevada, Arizona, Maryland, and New York have higher success rates.
The future seems much brighter for five other states looking to put proposed constitutional changes on the ballot.
A organisation in Arizona called Arizona for Abortion Access is attempting to get a constitutional amendment that would establish a “fundamental right” to abortion care up to foetal viability on the ballot. After that, the law would prohibit the state from limiting access to abortion treatment in circumstances when the pregnant person’s life or health is in danger, as determined by the attending medical provider.
According to Arizona law, abortion is permitted up to the fifteenth week of pregnancy, beyond which it may be performed in order to save the mother’s life, but not in cases of rape or incest.
By July 3, the organisation will need to collect over 384,000 legitimate signatures from state voters in order to have the item posted.
The group’s co-leader, Chris Love, said that they had “met and exceeded” their monthly targets so far and are on track to collect many more signatures than necessary.
She expressed the group’s optimism for victory, noting state polls that continually demonstrate the vast majority of voters’ support for abortion rights in at least some circumstances.
Advocates are trying to get a constitutional amendment on the ballot in neighbouring Nevada, where abortion is already permitted until the 24th week of pregnancy. The amendment would enshrine similar language, protecting abortion rights until foetal viability, and make it nearly impossible for lawmakers to ever undo those protections.
The initiative’s driving force, Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom, has to gather 103,000 signatures by June 26 in order for the item to appear on the ballot in November. However, even if it succeeds, before the constitution is legally altered, it would need to pass once again in 2026 according to Nevada law.
By leveraging the fervour around the topic, placing an abortion question on the ballot in Arizona and Nevada, two significant swing states, may increase Democratic participation in the 2024 presidential election.
Legislators in Maryland and New York, who are in charge of the state’s amendment procedures, have already been successful in placing proposals that would guarantee abortion rights in both states’ constitutions on the ballot for 2024.
Since the abortion regulations in both states are already lax, it is already generally anticipated that the revisions would be approved.
Additionally, organisations are in the early stages of seeking an amendment to the Colorado state constitution that would legally entrench abortion rights, since the state currently permits abortion in all circumstances. The plan would also lift the prohibition on paying for abortion services using public monies.
