Texas would have accepted the offer without hesitation if you had told them in August that they would defeat Alabama in Tuscaloosa, lose only once in a tight game against a top-15 team, and had a chance to win the Big 12 title with a 12-1 record.
It would have been easily good enough to bring the Longhorns into every prior College Football Playoff, in addition to being regarded as one of the best seasons for any Texas team in the last 30 years.
Rather, it may leave them out in the cold since it occurred this season.
This much seems certain as the college football playoff’s championship weekend approaches and many options remain: Texas will probably finish in fifth place if all of the favorites win their conference title games. Longhorns, nice season. Enjoy yourself while visiting the Cotton Bowl.
The tenth and last edition of the four-team playoff might cause a genuine outcry that would explain Texas’ haste in moving on from the Big 12 and justify the expansion to 12 teams for the following season, after nine controversy-free years of the competition.
Life is going to become harder when the Longhorns relocate to the SEC next year. Compared to Kansas, Iowa State, and Baylor, knocking heads with Florida, Georgia, and Texas A&M will be a very different experience.
However, Texas’s 75-yard drive to Oklahoma in the last 77 seconds in the Red River Rivalry will not be the only thing to blame if they are eliminated from the playoffs this year. What will keep them out will be the Big 12’s general weakness.
As it stands, the Longhorns have only triumphed twice over teams who are in the top-25 in the CFP. Among them was the previously noted 34–24 victory against Alabama, which is perhaps the finest victory of the year for anybody. The other, a 33–30 victory against No. 25 Kansas State in overtime, isn’t doing much good either.
Still, if the Longhorns defeat No. 18 Oklahoma State on Saturday, that would traditionally be good enough to qualify for the CFP. Only Texas has risen to No. 7 so far this year, one position behind Ohio State, which suffered a defeat to Michigan last weekend. To put it plainly, it indicates that Texas will undoubtedly want assistance.
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Steve Sarkisian, the coach of Texas, is making the correct comments. In public, he is concentrating on the Longhorns’ chance to win the Big 12, something they have only accomplished three times in the conference’s 27-year existence. Furthermore, he is aware that Oklahoma State is a formidable opponent for his squad, so he believes it would be unwise to launch any early lobbying efforts.
He said this week, “If we don’t play really well on Saturday and find a way to win that game, there is no College Football Playoff talk.” “There has to be another conversation if it occurs. We’ll see what transpires since many clubs have games to play and the dust will eventually fall where it should.”
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It wouldn’t do much good to complain. Texas will have to accept its bad luck if Georgia, Michigan, Washington, and Florida State all triumph and form a quartet of 13-0 teams. The committee’s work will be made very simple.
However, the Longhorns will understandably be kicking and screaming if they are shut out if any of the outcomes turn out differently.
Texas will undoubtedly be able to argue, “Hey, didn’t we beat this team on their home field?” if Alabama defeats Georgia. And in the end, it wasn’t even that close. How come they ought to leap over us?
Suppose that on Friday night, Oregon triumphs against Washington. The Ducks have probably looked the best in the nation over the last several weeks based on the eye test. However, does Texas, with three top-25 victories and the Alabama trump card, truly have a stronger Playoff record than a 12-1 Oregon squad with only two top-25 victories (Washington, Oregon State)?
Even if it’s improbable that Michigan will lose at Iowa, how secure are the Wolverines really? The Big Ten was just as bad in the middle and bottom of the standings as the Big 12, and they played no conference games.
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Then there is Florida State, a club that, should it defeat Louisville in the ACC title game, would definitively shatter the myth that the CFP committee selects the four “best” teams.
Prior to quarterback Jordan Travis’ terrible leg injury against North Alabama a few weeks ago, the Seminoles were very much on pace to be a national championship candidate. However, after that, they changed into a squad that is very likely not going to win a national title and projects to be Georgia’s two-touchdown underdog in the semifinals.
It is not intended as a slight to Florida State or the fantastic work head coach Mike Norvell has done to turn the program around and make it a national force by downgrading the team’s prospects with Tate Rodemaker at quarterback. It’s just a reflection of Travis’s caliber and how much they would miss him should they advance to the postseason. It would be simple to argue that Texas is a better team than this iteration of Florida State if the committee really believed that selecting the four best teams was its responsibility.
Even if they were all to choose Texas, Alabama, Ohio State, or any other team to defeat the Seminoles at a neutral site tomorrow, are they really going to leave out a 13-0 squad when it comes down to it?
No, it is most likely not going to happen because it would be too contentious to choose a power conference club that has lost over one that has won. The ultimate conclusion is always the same, despite all the conspiracy theories about this committee and the measures they value: unbeaten teams get in, even if it means that someone else has a higher chance of winning the national title.
Playoff expansion was necessary for this reason. The only thing that bothers me is that it took so long for a year when a very worthy squad to be excluded.
Texas is going to be that team on Saturday, barring any unforeseen circumstances. It wasn’t a close choice for the Longhorns to apply to the SEC, but this kind of playoff disappointment will be sufficient evidence that staying in the Big 12 was the right decision.
