Even still, the survey reveals that Trump’s followers are more fervent and committed to their choice than Haley’s and DeSantis’, and that Republican caucus attendees are split on whether Trump should continue to lead the party.
SOURCE : NBC NEWS
Ahead of the GOP caucuses on January 15, Iowa Republicans continue to support Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, who is now tied for second place in the poll.
“I had a much better life when Trump was president. Things were less expensive, I felt comfortable, and he supported my parents and the farmers. Respondent Kendall Pelzer, 53, of Bettendorf, Iowa, said that “things were better—plain and simple.” Pelzer is a supporter for Trump.
Selzer, who has spent the previous three decades surveying Iowans, declared: “This is a good poll for Donald Trump.” Despite all that has transpired since the previous survey, he remains the clear leader in the field, and his position has actually become better since August.
The Iowa poll, which was conducted by NBC News, the Des Moines Register, and Mediacom, took place from October 22 to Thursday. This was a turbulent time in the 2024 election cycle, with the Middle East war raging, Trump facing more legal challenges, and the GOP field getting ready for its next presidential debate on November 8.
As to the survey, 43% of probable Republican caucus attendees picked Trump as their first option, followed by DeSantis (16%), Haley (16%), and DeSantis (16%).
Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina comes in second at 7%, followed by businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and former governor of New Jersey Chris Christie in a tie at 4%.
(The survey was conducted before to former Vice President Mike Pence’s announcement on Saturday that he was suspending his presidential campaign. As a consequence, the results were little affected; Pence’s 2% of the vote was reassigned to the second-choice candidates of those who participated in the caucuses.)
Trump’s advantage of 27 points is an increase over the August NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom survey, in which DeSantis trailed Trump by 23 points, 42% to 19%. Twice as long ago, Haley was at 6%.
According to the most recent study, Trump has a significant lead over almost every demographic category, including self-described Republicans, evangelical Christians, first-time caucus attendees, and past caucus attendees.
Among self-described independents, who may enter the caucuses provided they switch to Republican registration, he has a somewhat smaller advantage.
large numbers yet taking into account Scott, Haley, and DeSantis
A significant portion of Iowa Republicans indicate they are considering DeSantis, Haley, and Scott despite Trump’s overall advantage.
DeSantis is ranked as the second option by 27% of probable caucus attendees, and 25% of them indicate they are actively considering him.
As far as the moral side of life is concerned, I admire his position on abortion, said Norwalk, Iowa resident Roxi Gillen, 60.
17% of prospective caucus attendees rank Haley as their second choice, and 22% more say they are actively considering her.
Kristy Beckwith, 60, of Ankeny, Iowa, said, “I feel like she’s fresh, and I liked what she said about how the things that she did as governor of South Carolina— I mean… she’s a strong woman.”
Furthermore, 10% of respondents cite Scott as their second option, while 32% say they are actively considering him.
41% of caucus attendees claim to be certain of their decisions.
A majority of anticipated caucus attendees—54%—say they may be convinced to modify their first-choice selections, which raises the possibility of ambiguity surrounding the upcoming Iowa caucuses.
Approximately one-third of DeSantis and Haley fans believe their opinions are entirely made up, in contrast to the staggering 63% of Trump supporters who think the same.
Selzer, the Iowa pollster, said, “This is a reminder of how locked in these Trump supporters are.”
Furthermore, according to the survey, Trump’s followers are much more enthused about their candidate than other caucus attendees.
In general, 30% of probable Republican caucus attendees report being “extremely” excited about their initial choices.
However, when it comes to the individual, 47% of Trump’s fans are fervently passionate about their choice, whereas this percentage drops to 25% for DeSantis and 19% for Haley.
Most caucus attendees ignore Trump’s legal troubles
According to the NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom survey, 65% of probable caucus attendees believe that Trump can defeat President Joe Biden in a general election, regardless of the obstacles he confronts in the judicial system.
In contrast, 32% believe that Trump’s legal battles will almost certainly prevent him from defeating Biden.
Caucus attendees are split on whether Trump should continue to lead their party, however.
The percentage of prospective Republican caucus attendees who think he should is thirty-nine percent, down from forty-one percent in August.
Another 28% of caucus attendees believe that although Trump was a fine president, it’s time to look at alternative candidates.
And 32% believe that a new leader with improved conduct and a fresh strategy is what the Republican Party needs.
Other discoveries
63% of prospective Republican caucus attendees say they base their choice of candidates more on the issues, while 29% think personality and leadership style play a bigger role.
DeSantis (69% favorable, 26% unfavorable), Scott (61% favorable, 22% unfavorable), Trump (66% favorable, 32% unfavorable), and Haley (59% favorable, 29% unfavorable) are the most popular GOP candidates according to net favorable ratings.
Christie (20% favorable, 69% unfavorable) and Asa Hutchinson, the former governor of Arkansas (17% favorable, 45% unfavorable), are the least popular.
Pence’s favorability rating among prospective GOP caucus attendees was 32% in the completed survey, compared to 65% unfavorable, prior to his campaign suspension.
