Thanksgiving dinner is more reasonably priced than it has been in years, even if you would not notice it by glancing at the sticker pricing in the grocery aisles.
According to a national assessment of supermarket prices conducted by the American Farm Bureau Federation, which represents millions of American farmers, the cost of this year’s Christmas feast, which is predicted to be $58.08 for a 10-person gathering, or $5.81 per person, has decreased by 5% from the previous year and is at its lowest level since 2021. However, when inflation is taken into account, the situation gets much better.
“With the exception of the 2020 outlier, this would be the least expensive Thanksgiving meal in the 39-year history of the AFBF Thanksgiving survey if your dollar had the same overall purchasing power as a consumer in 1984,” the authors concluded.
It doesn’t feel that way for many families. The contrast between Americans’ pessimistic perceptions of the economy and its fundamental strength is a distinguishing characteristic of the post-pandemic recovery and the 2024 election.
It makes sense that many consumers concentrate more on price levels, or the monetary amount of the items they purchase, than on the inflation-adjusted, or “real,” prices of such products. Since wage inflation is a frequently overlooked component of the inflation issue, the latter is the real test of affordability.
In fact, the AFBF reports that Thanksgiving food prices have increased by 19% since 2019, yet federal data indicates that median family incomes have increased by around 25% during the same time frame.
Additionally, the survey stated that “the average American also has to work fewer hours to buy the same meal than in previous years.” Even as inflation decreased after the COVID-19 outbreak, wages grew more quickly. We were able to pay for this year’s Thanksgiving dinner with 9% less labor hours since typical salaries increased by 4% between 2023 and 2024.
Naturally, not all workers have benefited equally from salary increases, and families across the income range are still being squeezed by long-term expenditures like housing and child care. Even while it has increased recently, consumer confidence is still lower than it was before the outbreak.
Even yet, the AFBF research stated that “some of the goods in our basket are at their long-term lowest prices, even in terms of the ‘current dollar’ price,” despite the dollar’s declining buying power.
For example, even though some turkey stockpiles were destroyed by avian flu, turkey is 6% less expensive than it was the previous year. Prices typically rise when supply becomes more limited, but Americans are consuming around one pound less turkey year, which lowers demand by more than enough to make up for the supply shortfall.
There are some more costly manufactured meals that could end up on Thanksgiving menus. Both cubed stuffing and dinner rolls are retailing for 8% more than they did a year earlier. Conversely, whole milk and sweet potatoes have had the biggest yearly price declines, dropping 14% and 26%, respectively.
Although fresh cranberry costs have increased by 12%, after dropping by 18% the previous year, they are still at their lowest point since 2015 and, when adjusted for inflation, are comparable to 1987 pricing, according to the research.
For consumers sick of inflation, who are this year more concerned with value, these affordability increases are welcome news. For months, major consumer companies have been using price reductions and promotions to attract budget-conscious consumers. Some, like Target, are not doing as well as others, like Walmart and TJ Maxx.
Grocery stores are not an exception to the increasing competition brought on by the flood of discounts as the holidays approach. In contrast to the 2.6% average increase in consumer prices overall, the cost of food consumed at home was just 1.1% higher last month than it was at the same time last year.
Aldi and Target have both launched Thanksgiving sales that are less expensive than they were the year before. A Thanksgiving dinner for four at Target costs $20 and comes with stovetop stuffing mix, canned veggies, and a small turkey. Aldi is promoting a lunch package for ten people for $47, which is less than its 2019 pricing.
Walmart is advertising a $56 “inflation-free Thanksgiving” feast that includes 29 things and feeds eight people. Thanksgiving meals for six people can be purchased from Amazon Fresh for less than $5 each, and Prime members can also take advantage of additional savings on turkey, sides, and desserts.
According to experts, there are many possibilities to compare prices because of the rush of deals.
The head of Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute, Robin Wenzel, advised customers to look at the ingredients of those meals. “Don’t be scared to visit different stores.”
additional components may be included in some Thanksgiving dinner packages, although doing so could require making additional dishes from scratch. Others need less preparation but have fewer items. “In many families, Thanksgiving is very personal,” Wenzel said, adding that the variety of deals enables customers to customize their food shopping to fit their get-togethers.
Purchasing retailers’ own “private label” products is one way to save costs; according to Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute, consumers may save $17 on a Thanksgiving feast for ten. For further discounts, Consumer Reports experts advise signing up for grocery loyalty and cash-back programs, which frequently include perks like virtual coupons inside the shop apps.
In the end, geographic location will also affect Thanksgiving meal prices. According to the AFBF, households in the West, which has the most expensive goods for the holiday, will typically spend almost 18% more than those in the South, which has the cheapest prices.
