Russian forces may be getting ready for a military withdrawal following the overthrow of former president and Russian ally Bashar Al-Assad by Syrian rebels last week, as satellite images appeared to show them packing up and dismantling military equipment at one of their major bases in Syria on Friday.
Although the ultimate agreement between Russia and Syria’s new administration is still up in the air, the movements show how the country’s power dynamics have changed significantly since Assad, as Moscow struggles with the loss of a crucial ally and the possible decline of its influence in the Middle East.
U.S. defense contractor Maxar Technologies published images on Friday that depicted transport activities at Russia’s Tartus naval facility and Hmeimim airfield, which are both situated south of Latakia on Syria’s Mediterranean coast.
On the airstrip at Hmeimim, two An-124 large transport planes were seen with their nose cones up, prepared to load cargo. A Ka-52 attack helicopter was observed nearby being disassembled, most likely in order to be transported. Russian military convoys and other soldiers seem to be moving near the airfield.
A Russian convoy was seen moving north toward Homs along the route that connects Aleppo in the north and Damascus in the south in footage confirmed by NBC News. The individual recording the video remarks, “May God never return you,” saying that it was the second convoy of its kind he has ever seen. Russian military trucks are seen traveling in Jableh, close to Hmeimim Air Base, in another video.
Russian soldiers were also leaving the Hassia region south of Homs, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a monitoring organization headquartered in the United Kingdom, with intentions to reassemble in Hmeimim later.
Across the nation, Russian military have been seen moving in similar ways.
Bystanders were seen waving their shoes at Russian military trucks as they drove through what seemed to be Syria in another authenticated video. Another, uploaded by the well-known Russian military-themed Telegram account “Military Informer,” allegedly depicted a Russian military column passing through Syrian territory controlled by the Kurds.
Russia, which is already involved in a lengthy ground conflict in Ukraine, has suffered a serious setback with the overthrow of Assad.
With Hmeimim and Tartus acting as vital centers for extending power throughout the area and preserving Moscow’s influence in the Mediterranean, Russia’s military presence in Syria has been a key component of its Middle East strategy.
Russia’s assistance in the 2015 Syrian Civil War intervention tipped the scales in Assad’s favor, but Moscow has failed to stop his demise this time, and a large-scale pullout would be a devastating blow.
Dmitry Peskov, a spokesperson for the Kremlin, downplayed the harm last week, claiming that although Russia has previously made considerable efforts to stabilize Syria, the situation in Ukraine is now its top focus.
According to him, Moscow is now negotiating with the country’s new administration on matters pertaining to its military deployment and the safety of Russian diplomats and nationals there.
According to Reuters, Peskov told reporters, “You know, of course, that we are in contact with those who are currently in control of the situation in Syria.”
In a significant change, Russian official media now refer to the Syrian rebels as “rebels” instead of “terrorists,” indicating that Moscow intends to work diplomatically with the new Syrian government in an effort to preserve its strategic military presence in the Mediterranean.
Nevertheless, there is no sign that a precise deal has been made to guarantee Russia’s continuous involvement.
After Israeli forces invaded Syrian land last week and launched a large barrage of bombings into the nation, Syria’s envoy to the UN issued two identical letters to the U.N. and the U.N. Security Council on Saturday, conveying a formal complaint.
The letter stated, “Syria reiterates its demand that the Security Council and the United Nations take responsibility and take decisive and prompt action to insist that Israel immediately stop its ongoing attacks on Syrian territory, ensure that they are not repeated, and withdraw immediately from the areas into which it has penetrated over the past days.”
As Israeli soldiers take control of the demilitarized, U.N.-patrolled buffer zone created under a 1974 ceasefire deal, Israeli defensive Minister Israel Katz said last week that he has directed the military to create a “sterile defense zone” in southern Syria.
Israel claims that its airstrikes and military operations are intended to keep Assad’s missile and chemical weapons stockpile out of the hands of radicals who could endanger its citizens or borders.
However, as Syria moves past 53 years of Assad administration, the international world is already concerned about potential instability, thus its march has sparked anxiety.
